Elections in Europe 2022, Wrapped
By Aari Helmelaid, 11 minutes
With 27 countries in the European Union, surrounded by 23 non-member states, elections on this continent are almost constant. 2022 has been a whirlwind year on the European political scene. As the months pass, one may forget what the year has brought and how the political climate has changed. This article wraps up the year by covering major elections that impacted European politics this year. Elections took place on a local, regional, national, and European level. Read below to discover the most crucial elections on the international stage.
Election of the President of the European Parliament (January)
Right at the start of the year, on the 11th of January 2022, the former president of the European Parliament (EP), David Sassoli (of the Socialists and Democrats) died. Presidents to the EP are elected for a two-and-a-half-year term. In the EP, presidents are nominated by the political groups (EPP, Renew Europe, S&D, ID, etc.). For four decades, the Socialists and Democrats (S&D) and the European People’s Party (EPP) have practised the custom of switching the post between themselves and supporting each other’s candidates after every term. In November, Maltese MEP Roberta Metsola was nominated as the prime EPP candidate for the position, making her the most likely successor for the position.
Metsola was first elected as a member to the EP in 2013. In order to win the presidency, a candidate must obtain an absolute majority. Out of 690 votes cast, Metsola obtained 458 votes, sufficient to win the election. Up against Metsola were the candidates Alice Bah Kunke (Greens/EFA, SE) with 101 votes, and Sira Rego (The Left, ES) with 57 votes. Prior to the elections, Metsola had already secured support from her own party (EPP), but also Socialists & Democrats (S&D), and the liberal Renew Europe party. S&D agreed to back Metsola in return for a commitment to political priorities with S&D and Renew Europe Additionally, S&D was promised five of the EP’s 14 vice-presidential vacancies. Metsola is the first woman since 2002 to serve as president of EP and the youngest one to serve so far (she is 44). A few points of contention have arisen over Metsola’s stance on abortion, which many consider a Human Right and which is widely available in Europe. Although Metsola vows to respect the majority’s pro-choice position, she has expressed her position against abortion. Metsola’s native Malta is a deeply Catholic nation, and only one of two EU member states (the other being Poland) where abortion is illegal. Metsola has also been noted for her work on migration and is seen as one of the leading MEPs on the subject. She has advocated for taking a ‘holistic’ approach to the migration crisis and even suggested relocation as an option. The new EP president has in her former roles helped oversee Parliament’s work to expand Frontex, but also investigated the agency when it was accused of illegally turning away migrants at the EU's border. Since her appointment, the EP has been forced to face corruption in its ranks, suffering one major corruption scandal, namely Qatargate, involving Greek MEP Eva Kaili (who was also one of the EP vice presidents up until arrest), Italian MEP Antonio Pazeri, and Belgian MEPs Marc Tarabella and Maria Arena.
Hungary Parliamentary Elections (April)
The Hungarian parliamentary elections took place in April 2022. The election took place simultaneously (and strategically) with a referendum concerning 4 sensitive questions on education about LGBT. One of such was: “Do you support showing minors media content on gender-changing procedures?”. The majority voted “no” on the referendum. From the EU side, perhaps the hope was to oust from office prime minister Viktor Orbán, of the far-right Fidesz party, for frequent rule-of-law breaches in Hungary,. Such did not happen.
The 2022 elections extended Orbán’s reign into his 4th consecutive term in office (Orbán first took office in 2010, and the Fidesz party won parliamentary elections also in 2014 and 2018). There is no set time-limit for the term of a Prime Minister, as long as they maintain parliamentary support.
The most recent elections took place in a truly tense time. The most debated political issues during the run-up to the election include Orbán’s controversial position on the war in Ukraine, an LGBT referendum, the urban-rural political polarisation, and clashes between Hungarian government and EU authorities. Of the 199 members of the National Assembly (parliament), 106 are elected via first-past-the-post voting, and the remaining 93 are elected via nationwide constituency mostly through proportional representation with some compensatory system. Hungary uses a mixed-member majoritarian representation electoral system. The multiplicity of opposition parties in the Hungarian parliament realised that the right wing Fidesz-KDNP alliance is relatively strong. Therefore, if the opposition does not collaborate with each other and only pursues their self-interest, they risk not being able to form a government, only staying afloat in the opposition. Hoping for change in Hungarian politics, the coalition they formed was named United for Hungary, with the independent Peter Marki-Zay as its prime candidate. Essentially, the coalition was a Big Tent (Catch-all) alliance encompassing 8 parties and 3 associate parties, with the common enemy of Fidesz-KDNP and the aim of establishing a new government after 12 years of the conservative alliance. Fidesz-KDNP received 52% of the vote, a sufficient absolute majority to form a government. The United for Hungary coalition received 36.9% of the vote. Some attribute Fidesz’s success to its influence over the domestic media landscape, with independent media generally being shut down if they express anti-governmental sentiment. Since the elections, Orban continues to take critical stances towards the European Union, recently suggesting the abolishment of the European Parliament. 2023 will not be an easy year for Orbán as he tackles an economic crisis, the withholding of EU funds for failure to address rule of law breaches, and isolationism due to its vetoing of EU funds to Ukraine.
France Presidential Elections (April 2022) and Parliamentary Elections (June 2022)
France’s most recent presidential elections looked awfully similar to the previous one in 2017), with the incumbent president Emmanuel Macron of the La République en Marche (now renamed Renaissance) facing off with the far-right National Rally (previously known as the National Front), headed by Marine Le Pen, just as he did in 2017. However, vote percentage changes show a slight shift in the French political climate.
France has a unique presidential system: unlike most European countries, the president is free to appoint a prime minister of his choosing. The first one is a political actor and a representative, not merely a symbolic figurehead. In the French presidential election, if no candidate wins an absolute majority in the first round, then the two candidates who obtained the most votes pass into the runoff second round, where the candidate winning an absolute majority wins the elections and becomes president. In this way, votes are recovered, given that a sizable percentage of the voting population sided with other candidates not reaching necessary voter turnout in the first round. In the first round, Macron obtained 27.9% of the votes, with Le Pen trailing behind at 23.2%. In the second round, Macron won with 58.5% of the vote, while 41.5 % went to Le Pen. This is a narrower margin than the one seen in 2017 with Macron winning with 66.1% of the vote going up against Le Pen with 33.9%. The figures ostensibly show Macron’s popularity in a slight decline, and correspondingly marks noteworthy gains for national conservatism.
The main issues shaping the elections were inflation and economic concerns, France’s role in NATO and security issues, environmental concerns, Covid-19, and immigration.
Entering his second term, promptly after presidential elections, France held legislative elections to elect members to the National Assembly (lower house of French Parliament). Four principal political blocs faced off in an attempt to form an absolute majority, which no alliance was able to. The first of the alliances was ‘Ensemble’, a liberal coalition of which Renaissance is part. The second was Union of Right and Centre. The third was NUPES – New Ecological and Social People’s Union, a left-wing alliance composed of Greens, Communist, and the Democratic Socialist and socialist parties. The fourth leading contender was Le Pen’s National Rally with a fragmented coalition of allies. The elections resulted in the formation of a centre-right minority government headed by Elisabeth Borne of the Renaissance party.
Sweden General Elections (September)
Sweden, for many years viewed as the epitome of Scandinavian progressive liberalism, has taken a turn to a centre-right coalition, collaborating with right wing nationalist parties.
Social Democrats have led governments in Sweden for the past 8 years (since 2014), but recent rising issues of criminality and immigration have challenged the Social Democrats (S). Many criticise the party whose main policies are welfare and relaxed criminal laws. S has typically remained neutral on military involvement, but since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the Party has taken a stance towards joining NATO (as has Finland). The S got a significant percentage of votes from the elections: 30.3%. Sweden Democrats followed this at 20.5% and the Moderates at 19.8%. The Speaker of parliament tasked the head of the Moderate Party, Ulf Kristersson, with forming a coalition government. The Moderates then formed a minority government with the Christian Democrats and Liberals (conservative liberal party), with the confidence and supply of the far-right Sweden Democrats (basically Sweden Democrats agree to take the side of the coalition in votes of confidence of government members and in the annual state budget vote.) Although Sweden Democrats are not formally part of the governing coalition, the agreement gives the party a substantial degree of influence.
The main policy issues under the spotlight in the Swedish elections were rising inflation, a surge in gang-related violence, Immigration debates, and of course Swedish accession to NATO.
Italian General Elections (September 2022)
One of the highest stakes election that took place in the previous year was the Italian General election. The elections were held in September 2022 as snap elections, to which Italy is no stranger. Snap elections are held earlier than initially scheduled (before the end of the term from the last ones), usually due to the dissolution of a governing coalition, or to decide on pressing issues. In July 2022, the 5 Star Movement party in the Italian governing coalition revoked its support for the national unity government over a bill tackling the energy and economic crisis. Although two motions of no-confidence failed in deposing the Prime Minister, Mario Draghi, he decided to still submit to the President of the Republic his resignation. In this last election, the centre-right coalition headed by the nationalist conservative party, Brothers of Italy (FdI) won an absolute majority of seats in parliament, with Giorgia Meloni appointed as prime minister (the first Italian woman to do so). Although voter turnout was at a historical low (63%), Meloni’s Brothers of Italy took 26% of the vote. FdI formed a coalition with the right-wing populist League (Lega), and liberal-conservative Forza Italia (FI).
The coalition marks a shift to the political right, becoming the first far-right led government since WWII. To many neighbouring countries, a switch to far-right politics is a concerning transformation. Parties once ostracised in national elections for their far right views have in the last decade have rapidly entered into mainstream politics and gained a considerable amount of supporters, often being the top 3 most voted for parties. Meloni’s alliance winning a simple majority is a sudden turn for Italian politics. Meloni is described as having Eurosceptic views but prefers to call herself a ‘Eurorealist’ preferring a more confederal, intergovernmental Union. On foreign policy, Meloni is an Atlanticist, supporting NATO. Although in pre-war times, she favoured better relations with Russia; after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine she condemned the Federation and pledges to continue sending arms to Ukraine. In 2023 Italy’s government faces the challenge to prevent internal dissent, keeping the coalition together, given that Italian governments are plagued by frequent dissolution, also on the horizon are budget cuts and a post-pandemic recovery plan. Meloni’s ascension to ministership is undoubtedly a watershed moment in Italian politics.
Honourable Mention: Bulgaria’s Fourth Parliamentary elections since 2021 (October 2022)
Honourable mention should be given to Bulgaria, which, for the last two years, seems to function under (or rather suffer from) a constant state of parliamentary elections. In October 2022, snap elections were held in Bulgaria, the fourth one in a row in only one and a half years. In 2021 a political crisis arose over the former prime minister Boyko Borissov’s mass corruption and negligent governance. Crowds took to the streets to protest. Borisov, from the conservative, populist GERB party, resigned in April 2021, leading to early elections, where GERB won again, but failed to form a coalition. Snap elections in July 2021 also failed to form a coalition. The third parliamentary elections in November brought a coalition government of 4 parties, headed by Kiril Petkov of the centrist, anti-corruption party ‘We continue the change’. However, differences between the parties became glaringly obvious and the government resigned following a vote of no confidence in August 2022. Since the three previous parliamentary elections in April, July, and November 2021 ultimately failed to form a regular government, elections had to be held again in October 2022. Borissov’s alliance of GERB with the Union of Democratic Forces (a national conservative party) won a simple majority of 24.48% of the vote. With ‘We continue the change’ trailing behind at 19.52%. Attempts by Borissov to gather a coalition government have unsurprisingly been unsuccessful. Political apathy among the Bulgarian population is evident in the low voter turnout, 38% in the latest elections. Currently, a caretaker government is running the government with president-appointed independent Prime Minister Galab Donev leading it. Since even at this current time (January 2023) coalition debates are happening, it is yet to be seen what kind of priorities a new Bulgarian government will handle in 2023, and whether Bulgaria has the chance to witness any political stability after years of crisis.
What to expect in 2023?
The above named elections demonstrate a re-arrival of nationalist and right-wing politics in Europe, as evidenced by Sweden’s pick of a new centre-right government, an increase in votes for right wing candidates in France, emergence of Italy’s new Prime Minister Meloni, an EP president who holds conservative views, and continuation of Orban’s reign.
In 2023, the most high-stakes election to look out for will be the Polish parliamentary elections (November), where the national-conservative populist Law and Justice (PiS) party will have to defend its grip on a majority government against a potentially united opposition.
Parliamentary elections will also take place in Estonia, Finland, Greece, Luxembourg, Spain, and Ukraine (non-EU). Cyprus and Czechia will hold presidential elections. Snap elections may unexpectedly be added to the agenda.
