Finland is a member of NATO - But what about Sweden?

Jan Herniczek, 5 minutes

The ongoing war in Ukraine has already dramatically changed our world. Finland and Sweden decided to break their decades-old neutrality and join NATO. But why were they neutral in the first place? And what do the Turkish election have to do with NATO membership? 

The 18th of May 2022 might go into history as a failure of Russian diplomacy. Sweden and Finland after decades of being more or less neutral and not pronouncing themselves on internationally divisive topics (especially during the cold war)submitted applications to the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO). To understand why it is such a big deal we have to go back in time.

It is the year 1949 West European countries and the United States start to face more and more troubles in their relations with the Soviet Union and Eastern Block. They are worried that the confrontation could turn into an armed conflict. The Soviet Union alone had 5 million soldiers in peacetime, which could easily be doubled in case of war. Faced with such danger the USA, Canada and ten European countries, prominently including the UK and France,  create a defensive alliance - NATO.

Now why did Finland and Sweden not join back then? Finland had a complicated history with the Soviet Union during the Winter War (1939-1940), it protected its national sovereignty  but lost around 10% of the territory, including one of the biggest cities, Viipuri  . In case of another war it would be one of the first countries invaded by soviets, as its geographical position would allow Western block to launch an offensive against one of the most important soviet cities - Leningrad. Therefore instead of joining NATO and risking enraging the Soviet Union’s leader Stalin, Finland chose to remain democratic and sovereign state, but remain neutral on many issues, so as not to provoke its powerful neighbor. This process was called Finlandization.

Swedish neutrality goes even further back in time and coincidentally is connected to Finland. After it lost Finland to the Russian empire during Napoleonic wars, its government decided on neutrality, understood as non-engagement in any potential conflicts, which continued until the end of the cold war. The neutrality strategy ended symbolically when Sweden joined the EU in 1995, as polarization of world politics seemed to have ended with the fall of the Soviet Union and economic policies could play a bigger role in decision making.

Both countries have joined the EU at the same time and have taken part in NATO's partnership for peace, which is an initiative focused on cooperation in such areas as military training, and exercise. They have also participated in NATO`s military missions for example in Kosovo and Afghanistan.

On 18 May 2022, Sweden and Finland applied to become NATO member states. Some public figures have expressed opinions that this was barely a formality as the level of cooperation was so intense that they could be regarded as an extended part of the alliance already. But official membership guarantees one very important aspect. Under article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty attack on one member is an attack on all. This means that NATO countries are one of the best defended areas in the world as they are under the defensive umbrella of the US military. Additionally this move sent a powerful message to the Russian regime after its attack on Ukraine, which was partially “motivated” by the risk of Ukraine joining NATO.

In June of 2022, Sweden and Finland were officially invited to join the alliance. In order to be members they had to be accepted by all 30 member states via ratification. Though this might appear to be a rather quick process to reach a decision, Hungary and Turkey were delaying their ratification and therefore preventing accession of Finland until recently (which finally joined on 4th of april 2023) and still have not accepted the Swedish application.

The deciding factors for successful application of two Nordic countries  to NATO (and its delay) lie in global politics. Both Hungary and Turkey are using this situation for their geopolitical advantage. Hungary is delaying ratification to put pressure on the EU to lift the blockage of funds against Hungary’s violation of the rule of law. 

Turkey’s president on the other hand is facing a reelection campaign with a country in economic crisis and devastated by recent earthquakes. Focusing voters' attention on international matters, especially those shown as security concerns and identity (more on that below), might be very beneficial for him. Moreover Turkey’s relations with the US have been strained over importing the russian missile systems and ongoing conflict in Syria. 

Sweden has faced troubles getting its acceptances as its government refuses to extradite supposed members of the Kurdish workers Party to Turkey , a group which has been in conflict with Turkey since the 1980s and is regarded as a terrorist group in US and many European countries, including Sweden. Expulsions of suspected members and taking a tougher approach on Kurdish organizations are some of the steps Turkey wants the Swedish government to take, before allowing it to join NATO. Moreover, after one of the far right Swedish politicians burned the Qur’an, Muslim holy book, the Turkish President,Tayyip Erdoğan, called it blasphemy and said that countries which allow for such acts cannot count on his support. 

As mentioned earlier, Finland finally got its acceptance from both Turkey and Hungary and became the 31st member of NATO on the 4th of April . What exactly does it mean? Apart from being part of NATO’s collective defense, it results in a doubling of length of the border between the alliance and Russia. The Finnish military is quite strong as its military reserve consists of around 900 000 people. It also results in NATO having better control over the Baltic sea, which would be one of the key areas in case of war between Alliance and Russia. Of course this move has been met with rather cold response from Moscow, with Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov calling it “encroachment on Russia's security” and threatening to take unspecified countermeasures.

But what about Sweden? Some specialists and politicians claim that the deciding factor for Swedish membership will be the Turkish elections. As mentioned earlier Tayyip Erdogan, the Turkish president, will face reelaction in May and he is using international politics to show himself as strong and important in international relations and take the voters’ eyes of domestic problems. If he wins he might decide to accept Sweden and repair his relations with western countries, on the other hand he still might use the possibility of acceptance as a pressure tool  against the US and EU, for example in exchange for economic help or reintroduction to the f-35 jet fighters programme. If he loses and opposition comes to power, it is very likely that Sweden could become a member this summer, as opposition claims that it is ready to lower requirements and accept Swedish application as a show of good faith towards the West.

As always the future is unknown, but Finland joining NATO gives hope for both a better future and, hopefully quick, accession of Sweden. The Turkish president may say that Sweden ‘cannot count on his support’, but he said the same thing about Finland. So Sweden is not out of the woods yet, but it might already have a glimpse of its path.