Belarus and the EU – A “toxic” relationship?

By Sara Saccon, 6 minutes

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, ruling the country since 1994. Copyright: Andrei Stasevich / BelTA photo via AP.

“The last dictatorship of Europe”, “the only European country that executes criminals”, “Putin’s close tie”. Media often use these expressions when referring to Belarus, thus underlining the rather atypical characteristics of a country neighboring the European Union. An initial harmonious moment between the EU and Belarus in the early 1990s was interrupted by a slide toward authoritarianism in the country which hindered the rapprochement of the integration process. that closed every possibility for the beginning of an integration process. Since then, Lukashenko’s authoritarian regime has ruled Belarus for almost 30 years, repeatedly violating fundamental human rights and conducting unfair elections, which many international organizations denounce.

How has the European Union reacted? A neighboring country cannot be excluded from the EU’s foreign policy, and this poses the issue of how European institutions should deal with non-democratic regimes. Therefore, how has the relationship between Brussels and Minsk evolved during the last decades until today? And how influential is the EU in the problematic political situation that the Belarusian population is facing? 

This article will answer these complicated questions, to gain a better understanding of the current international relations of the EU.

A “toxic” relationship? 

Belarus is rarely on the first pages of European newspapers, and when this happens it is usually after tragic events, like the brutal repression of pacific protests in 2020 in the aftermath of the presidential elections or the deliberately orchestrated humanitarian crisis in the winter of 2021. It is also under these circumstances that European citizens expect a firm stance from the European Union and an appropriate reaction in support of the victims of the regime. However, the relationship between Brussels and Minsk is complicated and the last three decades are characterized by intricate dynamics and shifting political decisions. 

The title of this article provocatively asks whether the relationship between Belarus and the European Union can be defined as “toxic”. This adjective, which is more familiar within the sphere of human relations rather than international relations, can actually be useful in describing the complex system of relations between EU member states and the Lukashenko regime. 

As many scholars argue, a certain degree of ambiguity surrounds the approach adopted by the European Union. These dynamics emerged as early as the 90s when bilateral ties came to a halt due to major setbacks in democratic growth and human rights protection in Belarus. It is possible to observe a first attempt at normalizing these relations in 2008, with the motivation of ‘rewarding’ Lukashenko for his unwillingness to recognize the breakaway Georgian provinces of Abkhazia and South Ossetia during the Russo-Georgian war. However, this period of normalization ended in December 2010 because of the harsh repression of opposition protesters during the presidential elections.
New efforts to normalize EU-Belarus ties followed the start of the Ukraine crisis in 2014. In these circumstances, Minsk took an impartial stance towards Ukraine, supporting the country’s territorial integrity. Consequently, the majority of the EU member states agreed that previous sanctions on Belarus should be removed, since all remaining Belarusian political prisoners had been freed and rehabilitated. However, the human rights situation in Belarus was still critical, with little evidence of improvement. 

Timeline based on the article by Bosse, G. (2021). Authoritarian consolidation in Belarus: What role for the EU? European View, 20(2), https://doi.org/10.1177/17816858211061839

The events in the aftermath of the presidential elections on 9 August 2020 represent a turning point in EU-Belarusian relations.  As Movements of the democratic opposition and pacific protests were organized in Minsk and in the whole country, Lukashenko answered with brutal and violent repression (more on human rights violations in Belarus in our previous article). The EU denounced the ‘disproportionate and unacceptable violence’ and the elections were defined as ‘neither free nor fair’. After some weeks of debate on the issue, EU member states agreed on a first package of restrictive measures, better known as sanctions. The relations between the EU and Belarus in the past decades have therefore been described as a cycle of disengagement and rapprochement.

During the last three years, the EU has implemented several packages of sanctions characterized by increasing severity against the Belarusian authoritarian regime, addressing individuals involved in violations of human rights and concerning various policy fields. Moreover, the current involvement of Belarus in the Russian War against Ukraine is posing new unpredictable problems in the relations between the EU and Minsk.

What about the Belarusian people?

International relations not only deal with powerful political actors confronting each other. Civil society represents an important and no longer excludable component in the analysis of international political phenomena. This is even more valid in the specific case of Belarus.

In its discourse, the EU has always supported the Belarusian population, standing with the organizations of the democratic opposition and trying to protect individuals forced into exile. However, researchers argue that the EU could do more and that the support is more symbolic and rather weak than substantial. 

Minsk, August 2020. Protests against the presidential elections held on 9 August.

Therefore, it could be argued that the current assertive sanctions regime adopted by the EU is increasingly prioritizing geopolitical concerns rather than focusing on the promotion of a democratization process in Belarus. However, Belarusian civil society organizations are firmly carrying a democratic opposition, continuously risking violent repression. 

While responding to some questions about the current situation in her country, a young Belarusian girl now living in Italy expressed to me that she is noting how Belarusians, mostly young people, are forced to leave the country, mainly for political reasons. 

Questions about the future developments in the relations between Belarus and the EU and the future of Lukashenko’s regime are the most difficult to answer. It can also be debated whether defining Belarus-EU relations as "toxic" is appropriate. However, probably the most pressing question today should be: when will Belarusian youth finally be able to live in a free country? 

Read also our previous article about human rights violations in Belarus: https://ecamaastricht.org/blueandyellow-zoomingin/belarus