It is Five Years Later: The Aftermath of Brexit

By Dori Felber, Read: 3 Minutes

Five years ago, on 31 January 2020, the UK left the European Union. Such a decision was mixed with varying emotions. Of course, there was the large part of the population that felt triumphed by their newlyfound independence, however, on the otherside, the decision was met with sorrow. 

Before the vote, Britain made an array of promises, all which would come true if Brexit comes to realisation. However, were those promises really kept? And what has been the true impact of Brexit on Britain?

Prospering outside the EU

One of the claims that was adamantly publicised and promised was that after Brexit, Britain will prosper as an independent nation. Contrarily, official government figures depict that Brexit is expected to knock 4 per cent off from the size of Britain’s economy in the long run. Less than half of Brexit's economic impact has been felt so far, with 60 per cent still to materialise, according to the Office for Budget Responsibility. The primary cause of economic damage has been a decline in UK-EU trade due to post-Brexit red tape, which has hindered businesses. The negative impact stems from "non-tariff barriers"—complex and time-consuming administrative requirements that businesses must navigate when importing and exporting goods to the EU. 

The official Vote Leave campaign frequently criticized the EU for driving up the cost of living in the UK and pledged that leaving would bring relief. A central promise was the abolition of VAT on household energy bills, which was projected to save each household £64 per year. However, this tax remains in place, and since Brexit—largely due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine—energy costs and the overall cost of living have surged. Rather than providing economic relief, Brexit has been blamed for worsening the cost of living crisis by increasing trade friction and pushing up food prices. 

Additionally, the economic consequences of Brexit—including the temporary depreciation of the pound, a decline in GDP, rising inflation, and increased administrative burdens—began to manifest shortly after the June 23, 2016, referendum. Therefore, any assessment of its impact should be traced from that point.

Given the UK’s status as a developed economy, its performance is best measured against other major economic blocs. According to György Jaksity, chairman of Concorde Securities, since the Brexit vote, the UK’s real GDP has grown by just 4 per cent, compared to 8 per cent in the Eurozone and 15 per cent in the United States. This indicates that the UK has lagged behind its key economic counterparts. Inflation has also been more pronounced in Britain, reaching a cumulative 31 per cent, surpassing the 27 per cent recorded in the Eurozone and 24 per cent in the US.

Over the past five years, Brexit has yielded no tangible economic benefits. Promised closer ties with the US have not materialized, nor have significant new trade partnerships emerged. While the economic downturn has not been catastrophic, Brexit has likely curtailed GDP growth by approximately 0.2-0.5 per cent per year.

Immigration

Immigration was another key theme during Brexit, with Leave advocates warning that it would continue to surge if Britain remained in the EU, but vowing that the UK would take back control of its borders. However, Brexit has had little impact on curbing net migration. In fact, immigration has reached unprecedented levels, with net migration soaring to 900,000 in 2023—nearly four times the 248,000 recorded in 2016, the year of the referendum.

Additionally, since Britain’s independence from the EU, there has been a large drop in EU immigration and EU net migration (immigration minus emigration), due to the cessation of the freedom of movement. This is because under the post-Brexit immigration system, EU and non-EU citizens both need to get work visas in order to work in the UK (except Irish citizens, who can still live and work in the UK without a visa).

Support for the NHS

One of the most infamous pledges of the Leave campaign was that Britain’s departure from the EU would release £350 million per week—previously allocated to the EU—which could instead be invested in the National Health Service. While NHS spending has risen since Brexit, particularly during the pandemic, there is no indication that former EU contributions have been redirected to healthcare. Rather than alleviating pressures, Brexit has exacerbated challenges within the NHS. The number of nurses arriving from EU countries has declined significantly, worsening staff shortages, while increased post-Brexit bureaucracy has contributed to disruptions in the supply of essential medicines.

The future is unsure, however one thing is for certain. The promises made in order to achieve Brexit were broken, and the future and prosperity of the UK has been rattled.