Jamaica, Blackberries, Traffic Lights - A Beginner’s Guide to Coalition Governments in Germany

By Ben Rosenbaum, Reading Time: 4:30 Minutes

With the German Federal Elections coming up, many international observers will be curious as to who will form the next government. But to make this happen, the parties will have to agree on forming a coalition. Germany has a long tradition of coalition governments, and this  history provides no shortage of confusing and peculiar names. In this article, I will unpack the potential coalitions, their likelihood after the election and what on earth a traffic light has to do with it.

The German Parliament, Photo by Hagen Albers, licensed under https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/

When the polls close in the German Federal Elections on the 23rd of February and the result is announced, many people will be wondering who won, i.e., who got the most votes. However, as soon as that question is answered, another one arises: who will the winner be willing and able to form a coalition with? Because in Germany, with many different parties on the ballot, coalitions are always necessary for a stable governing majority. An absolute majority for one party is a very rare thing, only Konrad Adenauer managed to win it once in 1957. And even then, he formed a coalition government.

In the decades since, the number of parties present in the Bundestag has increased significantly: from three or four in the past, the parties that could potentially overcome the 5% threshold number seven this year. Thanks to this increase in parties, the number of possible coalition arrangements has also increased. So let’s look at these in turn, starting with two-party coalitions.

The easy ones

Two-party coalitions are sometimes just named after the colours of the parties that form them, for example “Schwarz-Gelb” (Christian Democrats, Black, and Free Democrats, Yellow), “Rot-Grün” (Social Democrats, Red, and Alliance 90/ The Greens, well, Green) or “Schwarz-Grün” (Christian Democrats and Greens). The latter is sometimes called a Kiwi coalition.

On other occasions  their names reflect their  agenda, like the social-liberal coalition (Social Democrats and Free Democrats), or their history. An alliance of Christian Democrats and Social Democrats is still known as a “Große Koalition”, (Grand Coalition, GroKo for short) although the Social Democrats are predicted to come third in this election.

As the number of parties in parliament increases, coalitions of two parties become more difficult to achieve. Due to the small vote shares of the Free Democrats and the Social Democrats compared with previous elections, it is very unlikely that a social-liberal coalition or a Red-Green coalition would be able to form a majority. What’s more, political will might be lacking: parts of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and their sister party, the CSU, that only stands for election in Bavaria, have expressed opposition to a coalition with the Greens. 

Another factor is the so-called firewall against the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD): all other parties have expressly stated that they will not enter into a coalition with them. With the AfD currently polling at about 20% and thus at second place and with the CDU/CSU at about 30%, the CDU/CSU will have to rely on the smaller parties for a coalition.

Because of these factors, three-party coalitions have gained importance in recent years.

Three-party coalitions

This is where the names become interesting: A coalition of Social Democrats, Free Democrats and Greens is called a traffic light coalition (Ampel). This coalition was first formed at the  federal level in 2021, but as it collapsed in November 2024, it seems unlikely to be reformed in the near future, even with vote shares that would enable it.

The naming by colours is used in three-party coalitions as well, albeit a bit confusingly: a coalition of Social Democrats, the Left party and the Greens is called a Red-Red-Green coalition, even though the Left’s colour is pink. Perhaps Red-Pink-Green would not have the same ring to it?

There is also a group of coalitions named after national flags: a Kenia or Afghanistan coalition is made up of Christian Democrats, Social Democrats and Greens, a Jamaika coalition is formed by Christian Democrats, Free Democrats and Greens, and a Germany coalition consists of Christian Democrats, Social Democrats and Free Democrats.

A Jamaika coalition was attempted in 2017 but failed when the Free Democrats withdrew from negotiations. Due to the aforementioned hesitation on the part of Christian Democrats about entering a coalition with the Greens and the bad blood between Social Democrats and Free Democrats after the recent government collapse, both a Kenia and a Germany coalition seem rather unlikely. This puts the country in a difficult spot: with the government collapse and recent conflicts surrounding the AfD, there is increasing doubt whether the leaders of parties can coalesce to avoid an Austrian scenario and keep the far-right out of government.

With the emergence of a new left-wing populist party, the Alliance Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW), whose colour is purple to distinguish it from the Left party’s pink, a new name was coined last year: the blackberry coalition, referencing the changing colours of the blackberry in its different stages of maturation.

This short overview shows that while there are many possibilities of forming a coalition, they ultimately depend on the election result and the political will to negotiate and compromise. As recent estimates by weekly newspaper Die Zeit show, the feasibility of two-party coalitions depends strongly on which parties manage to cross the 5% threshold in the election, as the Left, the Free Democrats and BSW all currently poll at 4-5%.

Whatever the outcome of the election will be, many Germans already believe it will be followed by a period of instability until a new government is formed. And whatever the name of the next coalition, there will definitely be great tasks ahead of it.