Montenegro: The New 28th Member State?

Source: Unsplash

By Erik Schmidt-Bergemann, 5 minutes.

It has been eight years since the last EU enlargement in 2013 when Croatia joined the Union. However, the EU has not been idle since 2013 and has negotiated with the various candidate and potential candidate countries over the years (countries that have a prospect of joining the EU in the future but haven't been granted candidate status yet). 

Iceland was the most promising candidate country, but it put negotiations on hold in 2013. Further, in 2015, the Icelandic government requested that "Iceland should not be regarded as a candidate country for EU membership" anymore. This was mainly due to domestic pressure since most Icelandic people and parties were against joining the EU. Thus, which country is likely to be the next EU member state? 

There are currently five candidate countries: Albania, North Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia and Turkey. Additionally, there are two potential candidates with Bosnia and Herzegovina and Kosovo. Out of the five candidate countries, the negotiations with Turkey started the earliest in 2005. Yet, the negotiations are on hold since 2018 due to the deterioration of the rule of law and democracy in Turkey. The talks with Serbia started in 2014, but so far only 16 out of 35 chapters have been opened. This means that Serbia still has a long way to go before it could potentially join the EU. Moreover, the negotiations with Albania and North Macedonia have not even begun. Thus, Montenegro seems to be the most likely candidate for EU accession in this decade. The negotiations with Montenegro started in 2012 and as of 2020 32 of 35 chapters had been opened for negotiation. Thus, most of the chapters have already been opened and some have been provisionally closed. 

Source: Council of the European Union

Montenegro quick facts

Montenegro is a small country of about 600.000 inhabitants in the Western Balkans. Contrary to most other nations, it broke away peacefully from Serbia through a referendum in 2006 (with a narrow victory of 55% for the independence campaign). Furthermore, it joined NATO in 2017. Montenegro has been unilaterally using the Euro as its currency since 2002. Before Montenegro adopted the Euro, it used the Deutsche Mark as its currency. Therefore, Montenegro would be the first country to join the EU while already using the Euro as its currency. 

The current negotiations

So when does Montenegro plan to join the EU? In March 2021, the chief negotiator for Montenegro announced that the country aims to fulfil all requirements by 2025. The country will have to comply with all standards and rules of the EU and it will have to prove that its institutions are strong and guarantee democracy.  But even if Montenegro were to achieve its goals, all the member states would have to agree to the eighth enlargement of the EU. In an interview with Euronews, the Foreign Minister of Montenegro, Radulovic, has identified Germany as a key member state. Radulovic argued that Germany was supportive of enlargement in the past, and his assessment is seemingly correct. In an outline of the German position on the matter, the Federal Foreign Office makes clear that Germany is supporting Montenegro in its bid to join the EU. Thus, Montenegro can count on German support, but what about the rest of the Union? 

Various countries have been outspoken about their support of EU enlargement in the Western Balkans such as Italy, Austria or Slovenia. On the other hand, other countries have reservations against such an enlargement. In 2019 France, Denmark and the Netherlands blocked talks with Albania and North Macedonia. The main reason for their vetoes was concerns that the reforms in these countries were not sufficient enough yet. However, the European Commission had previously found that the two countries had met all reform targets. France also wanted to reform the EU accession process, but this was rejected by the rest of the member states. Additionally, the French government is under domestic pressure since a recent study has shown that a majority of French people are opposed to enlargement. 

Main issues

Montenegro's EU membership is still in the medium to distant future. Before the Council has to decide whether Montenegro will be allowed to join the EU, the government still has to tackle some serious issues. The European Council outlined some of the main areas in need of reform in a 2019 report. These areas are the rule of law, corruption, public administration reform and freedom of expression. In the Press Freedom Index by Reporters Without Borders Montenegro is in place 104 behind other candidate countries such as North Macedonia. Moreover, Montenegro also has a rather low score in the Corruption Perception Index where it scores 45 points in place 67. These rankings make clear that Montenegro still has much to work on if it wants to fulfil its 2025 goal. 

What are Montenegro’s prospects of joining?

Montenegro has made considerable progress since the start of the negotiations in 2012 and the population remains committed to EU accession. Thus, Montenegro has it in its own hands. The government will have to make considerable progress in the rule of law and freedom of expression. If they manage to pass crucial reforms and reinforce the rule of law, it may achieve its 2025 goal. 

Yet, even if it achieves its goal by 2025, there is no guarantee that the Union is willing to accept another member. An important event for the Western Balkan candidates will be the French elections next year in which a run-off between Macron and Le Pen seems likely. A Le Pen victory would make the prospects of Western Balkan countries joining the EU much less likely.