The future of EU-Latin America relations: A way between uncertainties and opportunities
By Clara Pastor Hernández - a Guest Writer for the blue&yellow, 8 minutes
Is the prevailing ‘pink tide' going to shape EU-Latin America relations?
Both the global pandemic and the energy scarcity crisis have challenged the state of play of the European Union’s Foreign Policy. While the Union still pays close attention to defending its borders, it also observes cautiously other partners beyond the Atlantic. Especially towards one territory, often left aside within EU policymakers. More precisely, the EU is increasingly interested in enhancing its cooperation with Latin America. But, is the region also willing to strengthen this mutual partnership? South America is embracing a new wave of leftist governments. Countries such as Brazil, Chile and Colombia have recently welcomed new governments aiming to reconduct and introduce new domestic and foreign policies. Regarding the latter, some of these leaders have already declared that to further cooperation with Europe, some conditions must be put on the negotiation table.
For countless reasons, Latin America has huge potential for cooperation and partnership. Not only at the economic, but also at the political level. However, a consistent alignment has never been a high priority for both actors and their external agendas. On the one hand, LAC countries have long relied on the US as one of its largest and accessible trading allies. On the other hand, the Union has boosted its engagement with closer neighbours. However, over the past two decades, world powers such as Russia and China have been increasingly perceived as preferred actors for some Southern American countries. Still, this may not be the case for all, at least population wise. A recent representative study led by Latinobarómetro, Nueva Sociedad and the German Friedrich Ebert Stiftung foundation surveyed over 12.000 Latin Americans in 10 different countries and the results showed that a majority considered the EU as their preferred partner. Likewise, a relevant consonance for values such as human rights or multilateralism was also found.
Nevertheless, EU-Latin America relations remain uncertain and hanging by a thread. After the EU's positioning against Russia’s illegal war of aggression, some countries distanced themselves from the Union. In the middle of this year, Uruguay and Argentina expressed their fears about the costly result of sanctions. Among other reasons, this drove the High Representative on Foreign Affairs, Josep Borrell last month to visit both countries' political leaders and advocated for strengthened cooperation in ambitious projects. Among them, the development of green energy in Uruguay and a EU-led lithium project in Argentina. Additionally, EU Member States, such as the Federal Republic of Germany, have long traded with states bilaterally. Foreign relations with LAC countries are sometimes perceived by EU member states as the continuation of Spanish and Portuguese foreign policy ties with the region. Furthermore, former European colonies still bear the responsibility of colonial and abusive past experiences throughout the whole territory. Consequently, Europe now must come to grips with all these critical points to restructure the partnership.
Despite certain unpredictability, one thing is clear. Amid this complex scenario where global challenges are shared, the need for cooperation and multilateralism becomes extremely decisive. However, to achieve real change, it is time to start collaborating on an equal footing. By doing so, both regions will have to yield interests while ensuring that there is respect for human dignity of peoples, transparency in their agreements and protection of the environment.
Gustavo Petro, Colombian first elected left-wing president giving a speech at its swearing-in ceremony.
Source: Government of the Republic of Colombia, official website. Author: Nelson Cárdenas. (2022-08-07)
The EU-MERCOSUR Trade Agreement: Lessons learned and new adjustments
The MERCOSUR, also known as ‘Southern Common Market’ is an ambitious shared regional integration among Southern American countries in trade affairs and market policy. Its founding members include Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay. These are followed by Colombia, Ecuador, Bolivia (in process of adhesion), Chile, Guyana, Suriname and Peru as associate members. In 2019, the EU and the leading Mercosur states closed a political agreement for a comprehensive trade pact. One year later, the EU was the biggest foreign investor in Mercosur with a stock of €330 billion. The free trade agreement is relevant to the signatories due to its opportunities for trade expansion and acts as an amplifier of the EU's global influence in regarding environmental protection and climate change.
However, the Asociacion Agreement (AA) has witnessed deviant moments challenging the pact's legitimacy. The 2019 fires in the Amazon and Bolosonaro’s violations of environmental law and indigenous peoples’ rights fostered the veto by some European states. Among them: France, The Netherlands, Ireland, Belgium, Luxembourg, Austria and Germany. Consequently, Mercosur and EU countries agreed to not continue in negotiations within the AA, and instead establish a “flanking instrument” or “additional protocol” focusing on sustainability issues. Likewise, in October-2020, a European Parliament resolution stated that the EU-Mercosur agreement could not be ratified due to a lack of guarantees over the enforcement of sustainable development provisions. On the other hand, the Commission emphasised the relevance to cooperate with Mercosur members to see towards improving the deforestation situation in Mercosur.
Interestingly, Lula’s popular election in Brazil opens up an encouraging scenario towards a strengthened cooperation between EU and Mercosur countries. Specially, in the fields of environmental protection and respect for the indigenous communities. His presidential speech promised an attempt to end deforestation in the Amazon rainforest, a crucial step to global CO2 levels regulation. Last month's COP 27 in Egypt also showed the harmonisation of commitment among Latin American states towards a common fight for a greener world. Susana Muhamad, Colombia’s Environment Minister, stated that Lula’s victory would allow a renewed regional cooperation among Amazon rainforest nations to tackle deforestation.
Notwithstanding, Europe shares the same responsibility in promoting political efforts for EU-Mercosur revival. In that sense, another important actor in enhancing Europe’s engagement with Mercosur is Spain, as it will assume the Presidency of the Council of the European Union in the second half of 2023. In that sense, next year will be determinant for the development of EU-Latin American trade relations in general. Moreover, Madrid is strongly interested in maintaining close and united ties with the region and could play a leading role in the consolidation of the agreement. One question remains in the air: Will the EU make valuable efforts to increase its legitimacy in the region?
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva participating in a meeting with Indigenous Amazon leaders and communities.
Source: RFI France, Author: Joseph Eid, member of the Agence France Presse (AFP)
A shift in geopolitical scenario: Asian’s growing influence in Latin America, a challenge for the EU
The United States has historically been attached to Latin America. At the political level, it has by long interfered without remorse in regime changes. Besides, a strong military intervention involving US-backed coups d'état aimed to get rid of left-wing leaders, military juntas, or authoritarian regimes. At the economic level, the States exert an undeniable extensive influence. The advantages of dollarisation such as lower transaction costs for international businesses operating in the region and the security of more stable exchange and interest rates led to Panama, Ecuador, and El Salvador to officially dollarize their economies. Hence the US enjoys a greater soft power and influence over the territory. But a solid consistency over the region is not the reality for the United States any more.
Since the past two decades, other global players have strengthened political and economic ties in Latin America, dismantling the traditional geopolitical puzzle. On the one hand, China is presenting itself as South America’s top trading partner and major source of foreign direct investment and energy and infrastructure supplier. This has been fostered through the Chinese giant Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). The BRI created two new trade routes connecting China worldwide. Beijing has not only funded the space sector in the region but it has also built up military kinships, particularly with Venezuela. Besides, this increasingly popular ‘South-South cooperation’ also provides aid resources.
On the other hand, Russia is not as influential as China, but it is also present in the region to a certain extent. Over the past decades it has been relatively engaged with mainly economically-driven and lucrative activities. These have mainly encompassed trade deals, arms sales and provision to Venezuela and Nicaragua. However, lately it has spread its legitimacy throughout the whole region by its effective vaccine diplomacy during the pandemic. Therefore, it is noticeable that the Kremlin’s engagement in LAC countries goes beyond economics.
Around thirteen Latin American countries welcomed Sputnik V for use. Moreover, the Kremlin harnessed the vaccine for propaganda and public relations purposes in the territory. Particularly, the success of Russian influence has been fruit of efforts to bolster its marketing and distribution strategy. The current Russian act of aggression is highlighting the need to take a stand and condemn the atrocities provoked due to the war. Will Russia’s legitimacy be negatively affected in South America?
Russian and Chinese worldwide Covid-19 vaccine distribution.
Source: Graphics from the Economist Intelligence Unit. The Economist (29/04/2021)
At a time where values are at stake, its respect and enforcement must prevail in global cooperation.
Taking all this into consideration, it is undeniable that the road to the consolidation of EU-LAC relations is not easy. The heterogeneity of both actors certainly involves a harder route and extra commitment on behalf of both parts. The international scenario presents both challenges and opportunities. However, there is a common aspiration towards a renewed and enhanced cooperation.
The latter entails a multilateral approach and equal-footing relationship to tackle main shared challenges. Among them, the fight against climate change and the ultimate protection of biodiversity, the commitment towards the 2030 agenda for sustainable development, the restoration of human rights, compliance with the rule of law and the constitution of fair, free and green trade.
However, it is important to acknowledge that this needs to be a recognised comprehensive commitment. This must ensure that not only bilateral governments and supranational organisations are the sole characters in the mutual partnership. A comprehensive approach should also consider local, regional and national levels of governance. And thus must guarantee the involvement, protection and participation of civil society and non-state actors in the different proposed cooperation projects.
Despite the present political polarisation there still exist fair opportunities and foreign policy mechanisms for cooperation between the EU and Latin America. Both territories possess considerable capabilities and resources that, with mutual assistance, can benefit them through the empowerment of their citizens and shared development.
