Recap of European Elections (Part 2)
By Beatriz Santos Mayo, 5 min.
EU countries follow the principles of democracy, meaning that elections are essential to legitimize the country's government. It is indisputable that 2023 has been a hectic year for many EU member states, ranging from parliamentary to presidential elections, depending on the constitutional structure. It is essential to study each of them in depth so that they can be taken as a criterion to forecast the 2024 European Parliamentary elections that will define the future of the EU for the next five years. From Spain to Luxembourg, passing through Poland and The Netherlands, this article will focus on each of them to elucidate the political future of the old continent.
Spain - 23 July | Early parliamentary elections
Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez, a social democrat, called for anticipated general elections after the left did poorly in the May regional elections scheduled for December 2023. With an absolute majority in Madrid and La Rioja and strong coalitions in the other four, the center-right PP (Partido Popular (EPP)) won the regional elections in several autonomous communities in Spain. Over 400,000 votes were lost for the president of the government's party, PSOE (Partido Socialista Obrero Español(S&D))
Compared to the previous election in 2019, the PSOE party gained two extra MPs and brought its total number of seats to 122 in a parliament of 350. On the other hand, the PP arrived first by gaining 136 seats, an increase of 47 from 2019. However, PP’s lead candidate, Alberto Núñez Feijóo, could still not call the election a victory. In fact, neither the right nor the left could secure the threshold of 176 seats to have a parliamentary majority and form a government (176). PP and Vox (ECR) would have 169 MPs together but would fall 7 MPs short of a majority. Similarly, PSOE and Sumar would have only 153 MPs when combined.
After Feijó was rejected by parliament as the future prime minister in the second round of voting, King Felipe VI, the monarch of Spain and head of state, suggested maintaining Pedro Sánchez in power. Sánchez had to deal with individual parties, increasing the difficulty of reaching a deal because of their demands. Pedro Sanchez was re-elected on the 16 of November, with a tight majority of votes, after promising the regional parties benefits and opening new discussions in the Mediterranean country.
Slovak Republic - 30 September | Parliamentary elections
The conservative coalition government of the political party OLa'NO has declined since failing to avert a no-confidence vote in December 2022. When the libertarian SaS party decided to leave the coalition in September, the ruling coalition lost its majority because SaS claimed that the government was not doing enough to help citizens struggling with skyrocketing energy costs.
The main parties in this election were Smer (S&D), with Robert Fico as their leader; Progresívne Sloven (Renew) of Michal Šimečka, and Hlas (S&D) with Peter Pellegrini as their candidate. The polls said that, with 22% of the vote, Fico was the expected winner, a four-point improvement from 2020.
Fico’s populist SMER party received 22.9% of the vote, vis-à-vis the 18% gained by the liberal, pro-Ukrainian leading contenders of Progressive Slovakia (RE). The two-time minister Fico now has a chance to win back the post, but he must find potential coalition partners to do so.
SMER is against military aid to Ukraine like one of its neighbors, Hungary. This is supposed to be a problem for the European unity about the Ukraine-Russian war. When Fico’s government enters office, conflicting voices around matters such as sanctioning Russia or humanitarian and military will be louder.
Luxembourg - 8 October | Parliamentary elections
The recent general election in Luxembourg demonstrated a dramatic change in the balance of power. With 29 percent of the vote and 21 seats out of a total of 60, the center-right Christian Social People's Party (EPP) emerged victorious. Their improved standing in the political system is demonstrated by this victory.
In the meantime, the governing liberal coalition, headed by Prime Minister Xavier Bettel, could not muster a clear majority. This alliance, which consists of the Greens (Greens), Socialists (S&D), and Liberal Democratic Party (Renew), only secured 29 seats overall. Notably, the coalition almost missed gaining a majority due to a defeat suffered by the Greens, who lost five seats.
Luc Frieden, leader of the CSV (EPP), noted that voters had overwhelmingly supported a different form of government and course for policy as he hailed his party's triumph. While highlighting the significance of the policy agenda above the office itself, Prime Minister Bettel indicated his desire to continue serving in the cabinet even if he does not keep the title of prime minister. Security concerns, for example, the spikes in the use of certain hard drugs, which played a significant role in the election, and the right-wing Alternative Democratic Reform Party (ARD - ECR) also made gains, significantly broadening the political scene in Luxembourg.
Poland - 15 October | Parliamentary elections
Poland has been governed by Law and Justice (PiS - ECR) since 2015. The situation for PiS was precarious after 8 years in power. Due to its reliance on EU funding, its disputes with Brussels regarding the rule of law and independence of the Polish judiciary endangered the nation's economic performance. The election campaign was marred by anti-German rhetoric, and the government-involved Visa corruption scandal, with the issue of several working visas in return for bribes.
Using the results of an exit poll, Donald Tusk (KO leader - EPP), a former Polish prime minister and president of the European Council, unexpectedly declared victory in Poland's parliamentary election after the polls closed. According to the exit poll results, Law and Justice (PiS) received 36.8% of the vote, followed closely by Civic Coalition (KO - EPP) at 31.6%, Third Way (Renew) at 13%, and The Left (Lewica) at 8.6%. If these numbers are accurate, a coalition composed of Civic Coalition, Third Way, and The Left would likely possess a majority in the Polish legislature. Unexpectedly long lines formed at polling places due to an unprecedented increase in voter turnout.
"We won democracy, freedom, and our free beloved Poland," Tusk yelled to his supporters. The” revival of Poland” on this day will be a historical moment. Politicians everywhere in Europe who diverged with PiS’s agenda rejoiced at the exit poll findings since a victory for Tusk would increase Warsaw's power.
Next Elections:
Netherlands - 22 November | Early Parliamentary elections
In July, the Dutch government collapsed. Fundamental disputes on migration policy existed inside the ruling coalition and were the cause of this sudden change of events. Sigrid Kaag's party (D66 - Renew Europe) has pushed for a more inclusive, integration-focused strategy, whereas PM Mark Rutte's party (VVD - ALDE) supports harsher immigration laws.
The Dutch government has suffered catastrophic consequences due to the division on immigration policy, despite intensive conversations and efforts to find common ground. Early elections will be held in the Netherlands on November 22.
The conservative Dutch government and the country’s longest-serving prime minister had previously lost three elections. Due to disagreements within the Executive coalition during their 18 months in power, Rutte notified the King of his resignation. The opposition parties in the Netherlands are overjoyed that Mark Rutte's center-right administration has collapsed. They favor holding early elections. The leader of the far-right PVV (ID) party, Geert Wilders, urged "snap elections now."
