Is France Ready for the Sixth Republic?
By Juliane Rabant, reading time: 3 min
This is one of the headlines we have repeatedly seen over the last few months – if not years. Three weeks ago, these calls came up again when Prime Minister Lecornu resigned just a few hours after the announcement of the new government. The situation begs the question: what makes France so ungovernable?
image credit: U.S. Secretary of Defense, CC BY 2.0 <https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0>, via Wikimedia Commons
The Fallout of the European Election 2024:
I personally remember the evening of the European Election; I first looked at the German results in disbelief – almost 16% for the AfD. Then my phone started blowing up – everyone was discussing the French results: 31.5% for Marine Le Pen’s far-right party Rassemblement National (RN). I will be honest with you – that evening I cried. But not only were these election results a shock to me and my friends, but also to the French electorate as a whole. Marine Le Pen’s party had been a threat to the system for a long time, but never before had it manifested itself as being so widely supported. The election results dealt a heavy blow to Macron’s centrist coalition, who won merely 14.5%, and fragmented the left even further. Macron, who within France was already widely unpopular, believed for good reason that the RN would use these results to undermine any majority in the National Assembly. To avoid this and to gain a clear majority he called for parliamentary snap elections. This was a gamble – of course, there was a possibility that the RN would be just as popular in national elections. But Macron’s plan worked at least to some extent: almost 67% of the French took to the polls, and the RN ‘only’ won 26%. With these results, Macron could confidently say that the RN did not have the French population’s backing – but at what cost? The left’s coalition, Nouveau Front Populaire, was under severe strain and faced early fragmentation. Furthermore, Macron’s party itself went from 245 seats to 163. Since then, there has been a power vacuum in the National Assembly as no electoral alliance won an outright majority. This makes it nearly impossible to find majorities in the National Assembly and virtually no agreements can be reached – especially regarding the budget.
The Fight over Budgets:
In the beginning of September, French Prime Minister Bayrou had to step down after a vote of confidence. Both the RN and left-wing parties voted against him, his government, and his austerity budget, which included significant budget cuts in social spending. This lacking majority over budget issues is also what made Prime Minister Lecornu step down just a few hours after he revealed his new government. Appointed once again, he stands before the monumental task of drafting a 2026 budget that would get the majority in the National Assembly.
The Missing Centre:
There is one evident takeaway from all of this: a strong centre is missing, and both the left and right are becoming increasingly polarising. The general mistrust in Macron and his centrist project has left France fragmented, and moderate voices have lost their influence both within the parliament and the electorate. The lack of consensus makes coalition-building extremely difficult, and passing any bill has become a challenge. Hence, Macron’s government continuously reaches for the contested Article 49.3, through which the government can bypass the parliament (if the parliament does not call for a motion of no confidence). However, this makes him and his party even less popular, as many argue that the 49.3 is undemocratic.
Many, including myself, are left to wonder whether France is even governable anymore or whether the country should move towards some sort of reform, possibly even a Sixth Republic.
How to move forward:
While the headlines calling for a Sixth Republic are loud and overbearing, establishing a new constitution within an already fragmented government and electorate seems almost impossible. Furthermore, who would lead such a change and move it forward? Macron does not have the necessary political capital De Gaulle had when he brought forth the Fifth Republic, and there is no other figure either that could fill those shoes.
Nevertheless, it seems as if some sort of reform is desperately needed, but few can articulate what exactly that reform should be. One thing is for certain: France is experiencing a serious political crisis, characterised by fragmentation and government collapses. If France wants to mover forward, it needs to overcome these challenges.
