Moldova, in turmoil since the beginning of the war in Ukraine

EU and Moldovan flags

Jeanne Gallien, 5 minutes

On May 31st, European leaders met in Moldova for the second summit of the European political community. But why? A small Eastern European country located between Romania and Ukraine; Moldova has always been under the influence of the Ottoman Empire and the Soviet Union, and more recently more powerful neighbors Russia, and Romania. It gained independence from the Soviet Union in 1991 and is now a sovereign state with a mainly agricultural economy. Moldova is also known for its beautiful Orthodox monasteries, wine production, and cultural diversity. However, the country faces economic and political challenges, and fears a Russian attack. As Nicu Popescu, Moldova's Deputy Prime Minister, pointed out: "We are neither in NATO nor in the European Union, we are poor, we expect the worst.” This article will address the situation of Moldova, which is located in close proximity to the conflict in Ukraine, the Russian threat, and its way to the European Union.

The Russian threat in Moldova

Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, Moldova has sought to move closer to Europe and the West, while Russia has sought to maintain its influence in the region and over Moldova.

The main tension between Moldova and Russia centers on the situation in Transnistria, a region that declared itself independent from Moldova in 1990, triggering an armed conflict in 1992. Since then, Transnistria has been controlled by pro-Russian separatist forces who have created a de facto administration. Moldova still considers Transnistria part of its territory but has not been able to re-establish its control over the region.

Source from the BBC: Map of “The separatist region of Transnistria or Trans-Dniester - a narrow strip of land between the Dniester river and the Ukrainian border - broke away from Moldova in 1990.”

A year ago (May 10, 2022), U.S. intelligence revealed that it had information that indicates a possible extension of the Ukrainian conflict to Moldova. Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines stated: "We believe that President Putin is preparing for a prolonged conflict, during which he still intends to achieve goals beyond the Donbass.” In the Russian invasion of February 2022, Moscow relied on the support of pro-Russian separatist regions in Crimea and the Donbass region. In the same way, experts now fear that Moscow is relying on Transnistria to invade Moldova.

 Moldova's economic situation

Moldova was already facing significant economic challenges before the start of the war in Ukraine in 2022, including negative economic growth, high inflation, and rising public debt. The COVID-19 pandemic also had a significant impact on the Moldovan economy, causing a 7.5% contraction in GDP in 2020.

Since the beginning of the war in Ukraine, Moldova's economic situation has deteriorated further. Moldovans, who were mostly dependent on Russian gas, have seen their bills increase by 700% and the price of electricity by 400%. Moreover, according to the World Health Organization, in March 2023, over 107,000 Ukrainian refugees remain in the Republic of Moldova, which serves as both a transit and a destination point. This creates additional economic pressure on the country.

Demonstrations and political games

 Pro-EU demonstrators gather in Chisinau, Moldova, on May 21, 2023. Elena Covalenco, AF, France 24

Economic pressures and security threats have led to significant upheaval in the country. In February, Moldovan Prime Minister Natalia Gavrilița announced her resignation, along with some members of the government, buffeted by a severe energy crisis, soaring inflation and due in part to the confirmed information from Moldovan intelligence that Moscow was planning to overthrow the pro-European government in Chisinau.  Indeed, a day before, Volodymyr Zelensky revealed that Russia was planning to break down the democratic order and establish control. Russia wishes to express its dissatisfaction with this shift towards the European Union by a country that was once part of the USSR.  The New York Times states that Moscow is trying to “stir up public discontent through local allies like Ilan M. Shor, a convicted fraudster and fugitive billionaire who used his money to pay protesters in the street.”. And it works in a way, because on March 12, 2023, thousands of people, mainly in favor of Shor's party, gathered in the capital Chisinau to demonstrate against pro-European President Maia Sandu, denouncing rising prices, the energy crisis, and calling on her to resign. 

But Maia Sandu, who was elected for four years in 2020 with a large majority on the promise of fighting corruption and bringing Moldova into the European Union, is not bowing to the pressure. 

In response to this Russian destabilization, thousands of demonstrators rallied in the capital on May 21 to underline their European orientation. On this occasion, European Parliament President Roberta Metsola delivered a speech stating that “Europe would welcome Moldova “with open arms and open hearts”.

Moldova and the European Union

Following the beginning of the war, Ukraine, Georgia, and Moldova have all three presented their application for membership in the European Union (see article on how the war in Ukraine has accelerated EU enlargement by Aari Helmelaid). The European Commission underlines that "the Council will decide on further steps when Moldova fulfills the conditions set out in the European Commission's opinion on its application for EU membership". In the meantime, the EU, which recently granted Moldova 150 million euros in aid to support its economy. In addition, Ylva Johansson, Commissioner for Home Affairs, and Ana Revenco, Moldovan Minister of Interior, launched the EU Platform for Support to Internal Security and Border Management in Moldova. It will support cooperation on internal security and border management between the EU, its agencies, member states, and Moldovan authorities. 

Helping Moldova is also a way to ensure peace and security in Europe, as Karin Karlsbro, a Swedish European deputy, states “The EU must stand by our eastern neighbors as they are attacked for standing up for their right to sovereignty and against Putin’s tyranny.”

Conclusion

In conclusion, Moldova, a small Eastern European country, faces various challenges including economic difficulties, security threats, and political upheaval. The tension between Moldova and Russia revolves around the situation in Transnistria, a breakaway region that declared independence from Moldova in 1990. The recent conflict in Ukraine has heightened concerns about a potential Russian threat in Moldova. The economic situation in Moldova, characterized by negative growth, rising public debt, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, further adds pressure to the country. Despite these challenges, Moldova has expressed its aspirations for European integration and has submitted its application for EU membership. The European Union has provided financial aid and support to Moldova in its pursuit of internal security and border management. Moldova's journey towards stability, economic growth, and closer ties with the European Union is influenced by its historical context, geopolitical complexities, and the need to address its economic challenges. But, the road is long and full of pitfalls. Considering Russia's difficulties in Ukraine, it's unlikely that an invasion will take place in Moldova, however, their attempts to destabilize the country have unfortunately already borne fruit. The government must stay the course if it is ever to join the EU.